What Does a Biden Win Mean for the Economy?
November 11, 2020
In true 2020 fashion, the presidential election has been a rollercoaster ride. On Saturday, November 7, four days after election day, most media outlets projected Joe Biden as the next President of the United States.1
However, the call for Joe Biden didn’t come without suspense, as the country waited for days for ballots to be counted in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.1 As of Monday, November 9, President Trump and many members of the GOP claimed that the election had been marred by fraudulent activity, and they vowed to pursue legal options to resolve those alleged issues.2
Barring any legal rulings that change the outcome, it appears that Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president on January 20, 2021. What does a Biden presidency mean for the economy, the financial markets, and for your nest egg?
Taxes
What does a Biden win mean for the economy? It’s difficult to say. One certainty is that a Biden administration would pursue a wide range of tax increases. Biden’s tax plan includes income tax increases for those making more than $400,000 along with increases in payroll taxes, corporate taxes, and capital gains. The Tax Foundation estimates that the Biden tax plan would reduce GDP by 1.62% over the long-term.3
COVID and Stimulus
However, there are some who think a Biden presidency could positively impact the markets and the economy. David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institute, said that the coronavirus pandemic and any possible stimulus are the biggest near-term economic issues.4
He added that the paths each candidate may take on those issues are substantially different. Biden is expected to push for a large stimulus package for both individuals and businesses. “In fact, that’s the scenario the stock market seems to be expecting and welcoming, even though Joe Biden is talking about raising taxes on investors,” Wessel said in an interview with NPR.4
Energy Prices
Some also speculate that a Biden presidency may lead to higher energy prices. A recent study from GasBuddy reported that “a Joe Biden presidency would favor more environmental controls with respect to drilling and emissions, increasing fuel mileage standards, alternative vehicle power like electricity, expanded tax credits benefiting fuel efficient vehicle owners, and evolving from fossil fuels.”5
Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, added, “Biden would end drilling, curbing U.S. oil production and end fracking, which could potentially send oil prices and thus gas prices higher.”5
Is Biden or Trump better for the economy?
Since it’s election season, there’s always speculation about which candidate will be better for the economy and the financial markets. However, the truth isn’t so clear.
According to Michael Townsend, vice president of legislative and regulatory affairs at Charles Schwab, “Markets are not historically affected by which party wins the White House and/or control of Congress, and that seems to be the case again this year.”6
This year has been one of uncertainty, and that will likely continue in 2021, regardless of whether Joe Biden is president or not. Let’s connect today to analyze your strategy and take action to protect you from market and tax risk. Contact us to start the conversation.
1https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/07/politics/joe-biden-wins-us-presidential-election/index.html
2https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/donald-trump-concede-legal-challenge-republicans-joe-biden-golf
3https://taxfoundation.org/joe-biden-tax-plan-2020/
4https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930722317/how-the-presidential-election-winner-could-effect-the-economy
5https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-biden-presidency-may-lead-to-higher-gasoline-prices-11603992805
6https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/economy/2020/11/03/how-biden-trump-election-win-affect-stock-market/6127375002/
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.
Who are you thankful for this Thanksgiving? You likely have some relationships in your life that are extra meaningful. Perhaps you're thankful for a spouse or partner? Or maybe your children? Or perhaps siblings, friends, or even coworkers? Do any of those individuals rely on you for financial support? Do you have a spouse who relies on your income? Or perhaps minor children who depend on your financial means? If so, this may be a good time to not only reflect on how much you appreciate them in your life, but also how their life may be impacted if something were to happen to you. It’s never pleasant to think about negative things that could happen in our lives. However, a failure to plan for possible threats could leave your loved ones exposed to risk. Below are three common risks that can disrupt a family and create serious financial hardship. If you haven’t planned for how to protect your loved ones from these risks, now may be the right time to do so. Death Death is inevitable. It’s also unpredictable. It’s never fun to think about your own passing, but it’s also unwise not to do so. At some point, you will pass away. If that happened sooner rather than later, how would it impact your spouse, children, or others who rely on you for financial support? Life insurance can be an effective way to manage the risk. You pay premiums in exchange for a certain amount of death benefit paid to your beneficiaries upon your passing. Your premium is based on a wide range of factors, including the type of policy, the death benefit amount, your age, and your health. Life insurance also doesn’t have to be expensive. One way to keep the cost down is to use term insurance, which provides coverage for a limited period of time, like 15 or 30 years. After the period ends, you can renew the policy or let it lapse. This can be a cost-effective way to protect loved ones temporarily. For example, you may use term insurance to provide financial support while you have minor kids in the home. Disability More than 25% of all adult workers will suffer a disability at some point that keeps them working for a year or more.1 What would happen to your loved ones if you were unable to provide income for an extended period? Disability insurance mitigates this risk by providing income if you are physically unable to work. There are two-types of disability insurance: short-term and long-term. Short-term coverage provides financial support for a limited period of time, like several weeks or months. Long-term coverage can provide support for a year or even longer, depending on the terms of your policy. Many employers offer disability coverage as part of their benefit program. However, it’s possible that your employer plan has gaps in coverage. For example, it may offer only short-term protection or it may only provide coverage for specific types of disability. If you haven’t reviewed your disability protection, now may be a good time to do so. It’s possible that you, and by extension your family, are exposed to risk. A financial professional can help you implement the right risk mitigation strategy for your needs and your budget. Long-Term Care Long-term care is a very real possibility for many seniors. Those turning 65 today have a 70% chance of needing long-term care at some point in the future. On average, women need long-term care for 3.7 years and men need it for 2.2 years. Much of the discrepancy is due to women having a longer life expectancy than men.2 Unfortunately, long-term care can be costly. In 2019, the average monthly cost for an assisted living facility was more than $4,000. Even in-home care services average more than $4,200 a month. Very often, these costs aren’t covered by Medicare. Long-term care insurance can help you, your spouse, and your family manage the cost. You pay a premium and then the insurer pays some or all of your long-term care expenses. Most policies even cover in-home care. You can often choose among a wide range of coverage options to tailor the policy to fit your needs and budget. This is the time of year to reflect on those you appreciate the most. It’s also a great time to evaluate your risk strategies so you can better protect those who are most meaningful to you. Let’s develop your risk protection strategy. Contact us today so we can start the conversation. 1https://disabilitycanhappen.org/disability-statistic/ 2https://longtermcare.acl.gov/the-basics/how-much-care-will-you-need.html 3https://www.genworth.com/aging-and-you/finances/cost-of-care.html Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.
The recovery in the financial markets hit some turbulence in October, as investors wrestled with anxiety about increasing COVID cases. However, a surge in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter may signal that the economy is on the rebound. 1 Through October 28, all major indexes had mostly recouped most of their losses from the COVID crash in March. However, all were down for the month of October. Below is each index’s return from October 1 through October 28: S&P 500: -2.73% 2 DJIA: -4.54% 3 NASDAQ: -1.46% 4 Here are the year-to-date returns of the major indexes: S&P 500: 0.40% 2 DJIA: -8.14% 3 NASDAQ: 21.04% 4 What spooked the markets in October? There are a few factors, but as is the case with most things in 2020, COVID may be the primary factor. COVID Cases Ramp Up The COVID numbers are surging in the United States, suggesting that the end of the pandemic may be nowhere in sight. On Wednesday, October 28, the seven-day average for new daily cases hit an all-time high of 71,832, an increase of more than 20% in only a week.5 Twenty-nine states hit record levels for daily new cases in October. Forty states had an increase of 10% just in the last week of October.6 Thirty-six states had increases of at least 5% in COVID-related hospitalizations in the final week of October.5 The surge in cases is leading to a new round of business closures and regulations. Illinois recently stopped indoor dining at bars and restaurants.7 Investors may be spooked by the prospect of a second round of closures and its impact on the economy. A new report from Yelp found that 60% of businesses that were shutdown for COVID will never reopen.8 Stimulus Outlook The uncertainty of a second stimulus may also be a drag on the markets. In fact, Gary Cohn, former president and CEO of Goldman Sachs and former White House National Economic Council Director, says it is a primary factor driving the markets’ poor performance in October.9 He added in a recent interview that, “no one thinks we’re going to have stimulus until after the election,” and that, “we know that the markets do not like unpredictability.” He said that there was “100% probability” that stimulus won’t happen until after November 3rd, and possibly not until after the inauguration.9 Fund Flows Some recent data on mutual fund flows may provide insight into how investors feel about the financial markets. Through October 21, equity funds (including mutual funds and ETFs) saw net outflows for 11 consecutive weeks. That means more money flowed out of these funds than flowed into them.10 On the other side, taxable fixed-income ETFs have seen four straight weeks of net inflows. That may mean that investors are leaving equities for fixed income securities, even with interest rates near zero.10 GDP Surges in 3rd Quarter On a positive note, GDP surged by 33.1% in the third quarter, beating analyst expectations of 32%. The third quarter number is the largest quarterly GDP gain on record, easily beating the previous high of 16.7% in the third quarter of 1950.11 Of course, the third quarter surge comes after a 31.4% decline in GDP in the second quarter. Even with the increase in the third quarter, the economy is still projected to contract by 3.5% in 2020.11 The markets and the economy have rebounded, but the future is still uncertain. This may be a good time to explore options that can protect your assets from market volatility. Contact us today at Safety First Financial Group. We can help you explore these options and implement a strategy to protect your financial future. Let’s connect today and start the conversation. 1https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-october-29-2020.html 2https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP 3https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX 4https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ 5https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-cases-hospitalizations-continue-to-surge-as-us-reaches-critical-point-in-pandemic.html 6https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html 7https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-october-28-2020.html 8https://nypost.com/2020/09/17/majority-of-covid-19-business-closures-are-permanent-report/ 9https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stimulus-donald-trump-gary-cohn-markets-100-percent-probability-deal-wont-pass-before-the-election-214720697.html 10https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2020/10/u-s-weekly-fundflows-insight-report-etf-and-fund-investors-focus-on-fixed-income-during-the-fund-flows-week/ 11https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.